The climatic conditions of the Arctic and new approaches to the forecast of the climate change

Annotation

The properties of climate variability are represented resulting from the special statistical analysis of observations of the world meteorological network of stations, taking into account the features of the northern regions. By the example of air temperature free and forced oscillation of characteristics of the climate system in their interaction are considered. There are formulated new ideas about the structure of the oscillations and the possible causes of climate change. A statistical model of a periodic nonstationarity of climate is suggested for forecasting climate variations for next two decades and there is suggested a model for monthly and seasonal weather forecasts for the next year. The practical importance of predictive research is particularly high in the harsh climate of the north, where the climate is one of the limiting factors of industrial development of the northern regions.

About authors

Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Chief of the laboratory for the research of climate change consequences, All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information — World Data Centre (RIHMI-WDC).

Keywords

climate change, climate variability, rhythms, climate forecast, long-term projections, the Arctic climate

DOI

10.17238/issn2221-2698.2016.24.39

UDC

551.509.3, 551.583.1