Assessment of the Influence of Growth Factors on the Gross Regional Product on the Example of Arkhangelsk Oblast

Annotation

The problem of differentiating indicators of economic development is relevant not only for the regions of Russia. One of the main indicators is the gross regional product. The work carried out a comparative analysis of its values for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the United States and China, which revealed differences by tens, and sometimes hundreds of times. In most cases, this is due to the specifics of a particular region. The aim of the work is to assess the influence of regional factors on the gross regional product. The article presents an analysis of existing methods for solving this problem by modern domestic and foreign researchers. A brief overview of the key factors used in the proposed models is given. However, the trends in the development of the world and domestic economies, political events, restrictions imposed by the pandemic, regional peculiarities leave this issue relevant. The paper proposes a model for assessing the impact of objective and subjective factors on the gross regional product. The testing subject was the Arkhangelsk Oblast, located in the north of the European part of the Russian Federation. Seven indicators were selected as objective factors, which have a close correlation with the resulting indicator. A multiple regression equation was developed and the quality of the model was assessed. A forecast of the values of the gross regional product for the planning period was made. The influence of subjective factors was studied using the method of expert assessments through the analysis of ratings of influential agencies. A correction factor has been introduced into the model, with the help of which the values of the volume of the gross regional product have been corrected. The results of the study can be useful for state authorities and local self-government bodies that manage the regional development of territories, and can be used to develop a strategy for the development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

About authors

Marina N. Kuznetsova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor
m.kuznetsova@narfu.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4242-4488 
Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov, Nab. Severnoy Dviny, 17, Arkhangelsk, 163002, Russia

Anastasia S. Vasilyeva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor
a.vasileva@narfu.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5986-8061 
Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov, Nab. Severnoy Dviny, 17, Arkhangelsk, 163002, Russia

Keywords

gross regional product, subjective factor, objective factor, multiple regression model, correlation, ranking, differentiation of indicators, forecasting

DOI

10.37482/issn2221-2698.2022.46.51

UDC

332.14(470.11)(045)